Zimao Xiao

This paper provides new evidence of long-run climate change adaptation in US agriculture. Focusing on the past two decades, our long-difference estimates suggest modest losses due to extreme heat, even though conventional panel estimates still imply sizable heat damage. Our results indicate that emerging long-run adaptation since 2000 mitigates short-run heat impacts by more than half, contrasting with the minimal adaptation observed in earlier years. This long-run heat adaptability is seen in both crop yields and farm profits. Heat-induced adjustments in production inputs, practices, technology, and farm consolidation help explain the enhanced adaptability.

Ecosystem services are essential to economic activity, yet their economic value is difficult to quantify. We estimate the value of bee pollination in the United States using quarterly bee colony stocks linked to agricultural outcomes. Our instrumental-variable design exploits non-local colony shocks transmitted through seasonal bee movements. An additional colony raises annual net farm income by about \$5,271, an order of magnitude above observed rental fees. Managed bee services also increase native-bee diversity. Our estimates provide a causal benchmark for benefit-cost analysis of conservation policies for ecosystem services.