Zimao Xiao

This paper provides new evidence of long-run climate change adaptation in US agriculture. Focusing on the past two decades, our long-difference estimates suggest modest losses due to extreme heat, even though conventional panel estimates still imply sizable heat damage. Our results indicate that emerging long-run adaptation since 2000 mitigates short-run heat impacts by more than half, contrasting with the minimal adaptation observed in earlier years. This long-run heat adaptability is seen in both crop yields and farm profits. Heat-induced adjustments in production inputs, practices, technology, and farm consolidation help explain the enhanced adaptability.

Ecosystem services are essential to economic activity, yet their social value is difficult to quantify. We estimate the causal effect of managed bee service on U.S. agricultural income. We construct county-level bee service from regional bee supply, crop-specific pollination demand, and crop structure. To address endogeneity, we exploit non-local ecological shocks transmitted through seasonal bee movements. An additional colony raises annual net farm income by about $5,000. The marginal value varies with colony condition before transport and pollination demand at destinations, underscoring heterogeneity along the interstate movement network. Our estimates provide a benchmark for incorporating ecosystem services into benefit-cost analysis.